Trojan Nation
Home | Statistics | Standings/Scoreboard | Schedules | History/Traditions | Archives | Links
2008 Numberology

Numberology #1

9/16/08

Welcome to the first installment of the Numberology column for the 2008 season.  As I eluded to in the initial MMR of the season, I like to wait until after three weeks are in the book before we start looking ahead to the playoff scene. 

This column won't be quite as important as it has been in the past though, as only four teams remain in District 6-AAA.  That's a drop from seven that were part of the district field for the previous two seasons. 

What does this exactly mean?  Well, for starters, if all four teams wish to play in the post-season, they automatically qualify.  Vince Nedimyer, Altoona AD and D6 chairman told me that all four teams are open to play.  I am only guessing, but I think that if a team would have a losing record, their coach/administration could refuse the bid.  Should that happen, I'm sure there is a contigency plan in place of one or two teams refuse to play on.  Quite frankly, I would have respect for a school that would finish under .500 and refuse the bid.  Playoffs are something you should EARN. 

Now, to what will remain the same.  Even though all four teams qualify, it is still vital for teams to rack up as many points as they can in order to obtain either the #1 or #2 seed and thus, hosting a first round home game.  Another constant this year will be our Trojans' playing catch-up to the other D6 teams.  Even if JHS keeps pace with wins, there are at a disadvantage because their schedule is laden with AA and A teams.  Somerset, the only other AAA squad in the LHAC prior to the 2008 season, dropped to AA for the current classification period. 

This contrast greatly with Hollidaysburg, Bellefonte and Indian Valley who have schedules filled with AAA teams (some from D9) and some with AAAA teams on the docket.  It was this set-up that ultimately contributed to the Trojans sitting at home with a 7-3 record last season.  Seasons like those really do give a case to the proposals that D6 teams play within their classifications like the WPIAL does. 

Now, although the Trojans won't be shut out of another postseason under this current set-up, they will be an a disadvantage as to obtaining a home playoff contest.

So, without further adieu, let's get into things.  Before we breakdown each of the four teams and their current place in the standings, let's quickly review the points system.  In AAA, a team gets 120 points for beating a AAAA team, 100 points for beating a AAA team, 80 points for beating a AA team and 60 points for beating an A team.  In addition, a team gets 10 bonus points for every win that opponent achieves that season. 

This is a cumulative thing that needs tracked all season.  In other words, in week four if you beat a team with two wins, you get those 20 points immediately but you also get ten points for each win they get after your head-to-head contest.  This makes it necessary to track the opponents you've beaten all season. 

Now, let's look at things after week three:

1.  Hollidaysburg, 2-1, 250 points
The Golden Tigers have beaten South Western (a District 3-AAAA team) and H.D. Woodson (a AAAA team from Washington DC).  Those wins helped them amass 240 points.  Woodson is winless but South Western has won one contest so they get those 10 bonus points and that is how they get to their total.

This week:  Hollidaysburg is at fellow District 6-AAA team Bellefonte.  The Red Raiders are 2-1.  A win over them would mean 120 points (100 for beating a Class AAA team and 10 points for each of Bellefonte's wins to this point). 

As for the other teams the Golden Tigers have beaten, South Western hosts Dover, a 3-AAA squad while H.D. Woodson
is off this week. 

MAX POINTS earned this week for Hollidaysburg:  130 points, 120 for beating Bellefonte and an additional 10 should South Western win.


2.  Bellefonte, 2-1, 210 points
Just a mere 40 points behind Hollidaysburg are the Red Raiders of Bellefonte.  These boys of Centre County play home games a stone's throw away from Happy Valley and Beaver Stadium.  They have defeated St. Marys (9-AAA) and Brookville (9-AA) this season.  These wins earned them 180 points.  St. Marys is currently 2-1 while Brookville is 1-2 so the Red Raiders gained 30 bonus points and that is how they arrive at 180 entering week four.

This week:  As mentioned above, Bellefonte hosts current 6-AAA leader Hollidaysburg.  The stakes are exactly the same for the Red Raiders in that should they win, they will earn 120 points (100 for beating a Class AAA team and 10 points for each of Hollidaysburg's wins to this point.

Moving on to the other Red Raider victories, St. Marys hosts Huntington (6-AA) while Brookville hosts Redbank Valley (9-AA). 

MAX POINTS earned this week for Bellefonte:  140 points, 120 for beating Hollidaysburg and an additional 20 points should both St. Marys and Brookville win.


3.  Indian Valley, 1-2, 110 points
The Warriors have only beaten West Perry, a 3-AAA team which netted them 100 points.  West Perry has only one win this season thus far so IV picked up those ten bonus points and that is how they arrive at 110 points.

This week:  The Raiders could move up should they beat their opponent this week in DuBois, a District 9-AAAA team that is currently 2-1.  Beating the Beavers would give IV 140 points, 120 for defeating a AAAA team and an additional 20 for each of DuBois' two wins to this point.

As for the Warriors' lone win this year, West Perry hosts Susquehanna Township, a 3-AAA team this week.

MAX POINTS earned this week for Indian Valley:  150, 140 should they beat DuBois and an additional 10 should West Perry also win.


4.  Johnstown, 1-2, 80 points
Unfortunately, last but not least are our Trojans and there really isn't too much to breakdown for JHS to this point.  Their lone win has come against a winless Class AA team in Bedford so all they have are those 80 points from the win.

This week:  Johnstown will be at Richland, a 2-1 Class AA team this week.  They would pick up 100 points in beating the Rams, 80 for the win and 20 points for Richland's two wins.

Bedford is at Penn Cambria this week.

MAX POINTS earned this week for Johnstown:  110, 100 should they beat Richland and an additional 10 should Bedford win.

 

ANALYSIS:  Whoever comes out on top in the Hollidaysburg/Bellefonte game will amass a nice early season lead.  Bellefonte can get a slight advantage in the bonus points game because one of teams Hollidaysburg beat is idle in H.D. Woodson.  Although neither team has a very impressive victory on their resume I give the slightest of advantages to Hollidaysburg.  Moving down the standings, I see a tough evening for Indian Valley as DuBois has wins over Clearfield and Punxsy on the season and isn't afraid to schedule outside of their area as they have games against two Erie teams (Cathedral Prep and Strong Vincent) as well as Perry of the Pittsburgh City League.  As for the Trojans, I know that they and Richland appear to be going in opposite directions but until Richland proves they can actually beat the Men of Troy, I have to go with Johnstown. 

 

PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 4:  We'll see how right/wrong I was next week at this time, but here is what I predict the 6-AAA standings will look like next week:

1.  Hollidaysburg, 3-1, 380 points:  not only will the Golden Tigers prevail over the Red Raiders but South Western will beat a winless Dover team to give them 130 points on the weekend.

2.  Bellefonte, 2-2, 210 points:  tough week for the Red Raiders as they won't gain any points.  I'll take Huntingdon (another former 6-AAA squad) over St. Marys and Redbank Valley over Brookville.

3.  Johnstown, 2-2, 180 points:  The Trojans even up their record to the .500 level and move out of the cellar.  Their on-the-field points will be the only ones they gain this weekend though as Bedford will remain winless after falling to Penn Cambria.

4.  Indian valley, 1-3, 110 points:  No points gained this week for the Warriors and they slip to last place.  Susquehanna Township has a good win on their resume in AAAA Red Land and they will beat West Perry.

 

Numberology #2

9/23/08

Let’s take our second look at the 6-AAA scene and will start with recapping how my predictions from a week ago turned out.

In the three head-to-head match-ups, I was 2 for 3 as I had predicted Hollidaysburg and Johnstown wins correctly but missed on Indian Valley. As for the power point games, I got Hollidaysburg’s correct as South Western defeated Dover. Johnstown’s prediction was also correct as Bedford lost. As for Bellefonte’s previous wins, St. Marys did beat Huntingdon. Indian Valley earned no bonus points as West Perry lost.

Let’s take a quick look at the standings right now and how they got to where they ended week four:

1. Hollidaysburg, 3-1, 380 points

The Golden Tigers flexed their muscles and showed why they are the favorites to win the district with a convincing 53-7 win over Bellefonte. Entering the week with 250 points, they picked up 120 for beating Bellefonte and another 10 for South Western’s win over Dover.

2. Indian Valley, 2-2, 250 points

The Warriors are the big movers this week as they pick up a great victory over 2-1 DuBois, a AAAA team, which nets them 140 points. They received no bonus points as Susquehanna Township beat West Perry.

3. Bellefonte, 2-2, 220 points

The Red Raiders drop to third place after losing to Hollidaysburg. They did, however, pick up 10 bonus points as St. Marys defeated Huntingdon.

4. Johnstown, 2-2, 180 points

The Trojans got back on the winning track with their 17-6 victory over Richland. Coming into the game the Rams are a two-win team and Class AA so JHS gets 100 points for the win. Bedford lost to Penn Cambria so the Trojans amassed no bonus points.

 

Now, let’s break down what week five has in store:

Hollidaysburg: hosts Indian Valley. A win would give the Golden Tigers 120 points, 100 for the win and 20 for Bellefonte’s wins.

Previous victories: South Western is at 4-0 Dallastown, a fellow District 3-AAAA school. Woodson is at Cardinal O‘Hara a Philadelphia Catholic school. Bellefonte is at Philipsburg-Osceola, a District 6-AA team.

MAX POINTS earned this week for Hollidaysburg: 150 points, 120 for beating Indian Valley and 30 points should South Western, Woodson and Bellefonte all win.

Indian Valley: at Hollidaysburg. A win here for the Red Raiders would net them 130 points, 100 for the win and 30 for Hollidaysburg’s wins.

Previous victories: West Perry hosts Northern, a 3-1 District 3-AAA school. DuBois hosts Central Mountain, a 3-1 District 6-AAAA team whose only loss is to 6-AA power Tyrone.

MAX POINTS earned for Indian Valley this week: 150 points, 130 for beating Hollidaysburg and 20 points should both West Perry and DuBois win.

Bellefonte: at Philipsburg-Osceola. P-O is a 1-3 District 6-AA team. They would get 90 points if they beat the Mounties. 80 for the win over a Class AA team and another 10 for P-O’s win.

Previous victories: Brookville is at 1-3 Clarion-Limestone. All of C-L‘s losses have come to undefeated squads. St. Marys is at 1-3 Penns Valley.

MAX POINTS earned for Bellefonte this week: 110, 90 for beating P-O and an additional 20 should both Brookville and St. Marys win.

Johnstown: at Somerset. The Golden Eagles are a 1-3 AA team so a win would net the Trojans just 90 points, 80 for the win and ten for their one victory.

Previous victories: Bedford is at 2-2 Central Cambria while Richland hosts undefeated Bishop McCort.

MAX POINTS earned for Johnstown this week: 110, 90 for beating Somerset and an additional 20 should both Bedford and Richland win.

 

ANALYSIS: Look for the Golden Tigers of Hollidaysburg to extend their lead in the playoff table. Bellefonte may be able to leapfrog back into second place should they beat P-O. The Trojans should be victorious in their head-to-head match-up but don’t look for any help in the bonus points category for them.

 

PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 5:

1. Hollidaysburg, 4-1, 510 points: The Golden Tigers will pick up their head-to-head win but of their three previous wins, only Bellefonte will prevail.

2. Bellefonte, 3-2, 320 points: The Red Raiders will, in fact leapfrog Indian Valley and reclaim second place in the district table. They’ll beat P-O and look for St. Marys to help them out with 10 bonus points. Brookville will most likely lose their contest.

3. Johnstown, 3-2, 270 points: The Trojans move into third place despite only picking up the points from their head-to-head contest with Somerset. Bedford and Richland will both most likely loss.

4. Indian Valley, 2-3, 250 points: no points gained from last week as they will lose head-to-head with Hollidaysburg and West Perry and DuBois will both lose. This means IV will now be in fourth place.

 

Numberology #3

9/30/08

Well, it looks like Hollidaysburg is continuing their dominance of the 6-AAA with back-to-back convincing wins over Indian Valley and Bellefonte.

Let's take a look at last week's predictions:

I was three-for-three in head-to-head match-ups as Hollidaysburg, Bellefonte and Johnstown all won. Yes, that's right, Hollidaysburg beat Indian Valley so that prediction cannot be double dipped!

As for the power points games, I had Hollidaysburg 100% as only Bellefonte won. I had Bellefonte 50% as St. Marys won but Brookville lost. Power points predictions for Johnstown were 100% as both Bedford and Richland lost. Rounding things out, Indian Valley got a win from DuBois and we had both their power points games at losses.

 

Let’s take a quick look at the standings right now and how they got to where they ended week five:

1. Hollidaysburg, 4-1, 510 points

The gap gets bigger for the Golden Tigers as they have knocked off both 6-AAA teams they will face this regular season with ease. They picked up 120 points with the victory over IV and 10 points for Bellefonte's victory over Philipsburg-Osceola.

2. Bellefonte, 3-2, 330 points

The Red Raiders enjoyed a max points weekend, picking up 90 in the victory over P-O and getting ten points each from Brookville and St. Marys each winning.

3. Johnstown, 3-2, 270 points

The Trojans leap frog to third place but hold onto the place by a slim, ten-point margin. They gained 90 points for defeating Somerset but that was it. As we mentioned above, both Bedford and Richland lost their games Friday night.

4. Indian Valley, 2-3, 260 points

IV only netted ten points this weekend as DuBois picked up a win.

 

Now, let’s break down what week six has in store:

 

Hollidaysburg is at Central Mountain this week and the gap they enjoy could get even larger with a win here because it would net the Golden Tigers a whopping 130 points as CM is a Quad-A school with three wins.

Previous victories: South Western hosts 1-4 Spring Grove. Woodson is idle. Bellefonte hosts DuBois and Indian Valley is hosting Huntingdon.

MAX POINTS earned for Hollidaysburg this week: 160, 130 for beating Central Mountain and 30 if both South Western, Bellefonte and Indian Valley win.

 

Bellefonte hosts DuBois and the Red Raiders are in the same position as Hollidaysburg albeit they could space themselves out between the third place team. DuBois is a three-win Quad A team and they would pick up 130 points with a win.

Previous victories:

MAX POINTS earned for Bellefonte this week: 160, 130 for beating DuBois and 30 if Brookville, St Marys and P-O all win.

 

Johnstown hosts Bishop Carroll. BC is only a Class A school with three wins so they'd pick up 90 points with a victory (60 for beating a Class A school and 30 power points for their three wins).

Previous victories: Richland is at Somerset, so no matter who wins that game, JHS will pick up ten points. Bedford is hosting Bishop Guilfoyle.

MAX POINTS earned for Johnstown this week: 110, 90 for beating BC, 10 no matter what happens in the Richland/Somerset game and 10 should Bedford win.

 

Indian Valley is hosting Huntingdon. The Bearcats are AA this year and come into the contest 2-3. So IV would get 100 points for this win, 80 for beating a Class AA team and 20 points for the two wins Huntingdon already has to this point this year.

Previous victories: West Perry is at Waynesboro while DuBois is at Bellefonte.

MAX POINTS earned for Indian Valley: 120, 100 for beating Huntingdon and 20 points should both West Perry and DuBois win.

 

ANAYSIS: A win for the Trojans would most likely keep them in third place but with more breathing room should IV lose. Hollidaysburg and Bellefonte can make big gains this week and start looking at putting those first round home games on lock.

 

PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 6:

1. Hollidaysburg, 5-1, 670 points. The Golden Tigers will hold a 200 point gap that should solidfy them, barring a meltdown in the second half of the regular season, as the top seed. They'll beat Central Mountain and will get power points from South Western, Bellefonte and Indian Valley.

2. Bellefonte, 4-2, 470 points. The Red Raiders will take care of business on the field versus DuBois and will get help from Brookville. They will have a 100-point gap on the third place to be Johnstown Trojans.

3. Johnstown, 4-2, 370 points. I look for the Trojans to score the big win at home against Bishop Carroll in what has the makings of a classic what with the 50th anniversary celebration for the 1958 team going on. They'll get 10 points by default from the Richland/Somerset game but that will be it for the week.

4. Indian Valley, 3-3, 360 points. The Warriors will answer with a big home win over former 6-AAA team Huntingdon but that's all they'll get as West Perry and DuBois will likely lose. The win will keep them within 10 points of third place.

 

Numberology #4

10/7/08

Before I get into the meat and pototoes if you will, I need to make a few corrections from last week's entry.  First, my MAX POINTS were incorrect for both Hollidaysburg and Bellefonte.  Both teams were playing AAAA opponents, which I mentioned, however, my points were incorrect.  Both squads were playing three-win AAAA teams which, if they won, would net them 150 points, not the 130 I suggested.  Sorry about that incorrect nugget in the Numberology.

The other thing was that Woodson High out of Washington D.C. did in fact have a game this past week despite MaxPreps and several other sites I checked not listing them with a contest for week six.  Therefore, Hollidaysburg's MAX POINTS off for another reason.

Because of that confusion, I'll skip reviewing the predictions and go straight to recapping where the standings stand now.


1.  Hollidaysburg, 5-1, 680 points
The Golden Tigers continue to show they are the cream of the crop in 6-AAA.  Their win over Central Mountain 150 points and got 10 points each for wins from Woodson and South Western.

2.  Johnstown, 4-2, 370 points
The Trojans leap into second place with a nice win over Bishop Carroll that netted them 90 points as well as getting 10 points for Richland's defeat of Somerset.

3.  Bellefonte, 3-3, 350 points
The Red Raiders lost their head-to-head contest but picked up 20 points on the week as Brookville and Philipsburg-Osceola won.

4.  Indian Valley, 2-4, 280 points
The Warriors are now two games under .500 after losing to Huntingdon.  They picked up 20 points, 10 each for wins from DuBois and West Perry. 

 

Moving on and the breakdown for week seven:


Hollidaysburg is at Wilson High School out of Washington.  Wilson is 4-2 and for the intents and purposes of gather points in District 6, a Class AAAA school.  This would be a big payoff the Golden Tigers as they would get 160 points for the win (120 for beating the Class AAAA team and 10 points for each of their four wins).

Previous victories:  South Western (3-3) is at Red Lion (3-3), Woodson DC is hosting McKinley Tech DC, Bellefonte is at Central Mountain and Indian Valley is at St. Marys.

MAX POINTS earned for Hollidaysburg this week: 200, 160 for the win over Wilson, 10 should South Western win, 10 should Woodson win and 10 should Indian Valley win.  They are guaranteed 10 points from the Bellefonte/Central Mountain game since they defeated both teams.


Johnstown is at Bishop McCort and although the Crushers are only a Class A team, they are 6-0 so a win would give the Trojans a 120-point boost.

Previous victories:  Bedford (0-6) plays Cambria Heights (1-5), Richland (3-3) plays Westmont (1-5), and Somerset (1-5) plays Bishop Carroll (3-3).

MAX POINTS earned for Johnstown this week:  150, 120 for the win over McCort, 10 if Bedford wins, 10 if Richland wins and a guaranteed 10 points in the Somerset/Bishop Carroll contest.


Bellefonte is at Central Mountain and could also be in line for a big payoff as CM is a Quad A team with three wins so a victory would give the Red Raiders 150 points (120 points for the win and 10 points each for CM's three wins).

Previous victories:  St. Marys (4-2) takes on Indian Valley (2-4), Brookville (3-3) is at Montineau (6-0) and Philipsburg-Osceola (2-4) is at Tyrone (5-1).

MAX POINTS earned for Bellefonte this week:  180, 150 for the win over Central Mountain and 10 each for wins by St. Marys, Brookville and Philipsburg-Osceola.


Indian Valley at St. Marys this week.  The Flying Dutch are a Class AAA team out of District 9 and they are 4-2.  A win by the Warriors would give them 140 points. 

Previous victories:  West Perry (2-4) hosts Red Land (4-2) while DuBois (4-2) is at Chestnut Ridge (3-3). 

MAX POINTS earned for Indian Valley this week:  160, 140 for the win over St. Marys and 10 each for West Perry and DuBois should those two teams win.

 


ANALYSIS:  All four teams have tremendous chances to gain a lot of points this weekend.  Especially if head-to-head match-ups on the field are won.

 

PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 7:

Hollidaysburg, 6-1, 870 points.  I have the Golden Tigers as the only 6-AAA team taking care of business on the field this week in their head-to-head contest so their gap in first will get even larger.

Johnstown, 4-3, 400 points.  Totally with my head here as my heart will obviously be pulling for a JHS victory.  I do see JHS picking up 30 bonus points this week, the 10 guaranteed from the Bishop Carroll/Somerset contest but also 10 from Richland beating Westmont and 10 from Bedford getting their maiden victory of the season over Cambria Heights.

Bellefonte, 3-4, 360 points.  The Red Raiders losing to Central Mountain will keep them in third place but they'll get 10 bonus points from St. Marys beating Indian Valley.

Indian Valley, 2-5, 290 points.  So I spoiled the prediction on this one but no, IV will not beat the Flying Dutch but they'll gain 10 bonus points on the weekend as DuBois whould defeat Chestnut Ridge.

 

Numberology #5

10/14/08

Well, things pretty much shook out on the field like we thought they would with only Hollidaysburg getting a head-to-head win on the field during week seven. Final points projections were ten points off for Hollidaysburg, Johnstown and Indian Valley.

Here’s how things look after the week:

1. Hollidaysburg, 6-1, 860 points

No surprise here as the Golden Tigers beat another DC-area team and improve their mark on the season. They also got help from wins by Woodson and Central Mountain.

2. Johnstown, 4-3, 390 points

Despite suffering crushing defeat to cross-town rival Bishop McCort, they still remain in second place by a 30-point margin. Wins from Bedford and Bishop Carroll gave them some bonus points.

3. Bellefonte, 3-4, 360 points

Only ten points from a St. Marys win gave the Red Raiders any points on the week.

4. Indian Valley, 2-5, 300 points

The cellar dwellers dropped to 2-5 on the year but picked up power points from West Perry and DuBois.

 

Now, to the breakdown of week eight:

 

Hollidaysburg hosts Cedar Cliff in yet another contest against a Class AAAA team. The Golden Tigers would gain 160 points with a win, 120 for beating a Quad-A team and 10 points times four for the four wins Cedar Cliff has amassed to this point of the season.

Previous victories: South Western (3-4) hosts Central York (6-1); Woodson (DC) hosts Ballou (DC); Bellefonte hosts Penns Valley (1-6); Central Mountain plays Indian Valley; Wilson (DC) hosts Coolidge (DC).

MAX POINTS earned for Hollidaysburg this week: 210. 160 for beating Cedar Cliff, a guaranteed 10 from the CM/IV game and 10 each should South Western, Woodson (DC), Bellefonte and Wilson (DC) win.

 

Johnstown hosts Cambria Heights. They would get 90 points for defeating the Highlanders, 80 because they are a Class AA team and 10 points for their lone win on the season.

Previous victories: Richland is at Bedford; Somerset hosts Bishop Guilfoyle and Bishop Carroll hosts Forest Hills.

MAX POINTS earned for Johnstown this week: 120. 90 for defeating Cambria Heights, 10 guaranteed for the Bedford/Richland game and 10 each should Somerset and Bishop Carroll win.

 

Bellefonte hosts 1-6 Penns Valley. PV is a Class AA team so they would obtain 90 points for the win.

Previous victories: St. Marys and Philipsburg Osceola play each other and Brookville plays Keystone (those two have identical records).

MAX POINTS earned for Bellefonte: 110. 90 for beating Penns Valley, guaranteed 10 for the St. Marys/P-O game and 10 should Brookville win.

 

Indian Valley hosts Central Mountain. They would get a much needed 160-point boost should they defeat the Quad-A Wildcats who are 4-3.

Previous victories: West Perry plays East Pennsboro, a battle of two teams with identical records while DuBois hosts Perry (6-1) out of the City League.

MAX POINTS earned for Indian Valley: 180. 160 for beating Central Mountain and ten each should West Perry and DuBois each win their games.

 

ANALYSIS: More of the same at the top with Hollidaysburg probably boosting their points to over 1,000 on the year. Johnstown should win easily over Cambria Heights and they need that badly if they want to stay in second place because Bellefonte should also win easily as both JHS and Bellefonte are playing one-win teams. This is an excellent opportunity for Indian Valley to get out of the cellar but I don’t see it happening.

 

PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 8:

Hollidaysburg, 7-1, 1,030 points. The Golden Tigers break one grand on the points scale with another win on the field and they’ll get help a few friends.

Johnstown, 5-3, 490 points. The Trojans will win easily on the field but that’s just about all the help they’ll get, they’ll only pick up power points in a game of two teams they previously beat.

Bellefonte, 4-4, 460 points. The Red Raiders will beat a one-win Penns Valley team and they’ll pick up the max points this week as far as bonus points as well.

Indian Valley, 2-6, 310 points. Rough week for the Warriors on the field and off as they’ll lose to a Central Mountain squad and will only get 10 bonus points for the week.

 

Numberology #6

10/21/08

Three of the four District 6-AAA teams won their contests last Friday with only Indian Valley losing. 

Here's how things look after the week:

1.  Hollidaysburg, 7-1, 1,050 points

The Golden Tigers have all but wrapped up the top seed in the district.  They defeated Cedar Cliff on the field and got power points help from Woodson (DC), Bellefonte and Central Mountain.

2.  Johnstown, 5-3, 490 points

The Trojans won easily against Cambria Heights and got from Richland's win over Bedford.  They hold a slim, 20-point lead over third place Bellefonte.

3.  Bellefonte, 4-4, 470 points

The Red Raiders defeated Penns Valley and picked up 20 bonus points from teams they previously beat.

4.  Indian Valley, 2-6, 300 points
Nothing gained from IV this week as they lost their game with Central Mountain and both of the teams they previously beat lost.


Moving on, let's peek at week nine:

Hollidaysburg plays Williamsport.  The Millionaires are 2-6 and a Class AAAA team out of District 4.  Hollidaysburg would gain 140 points with a win, 120 for beating a Class AAAA team and 10 points for each of Williamsport's wins.

Previous victories:  South Western is taking undefeated York William Penn.  Woodson (DC) has already been awarded a forfeit win over Eastern (DC).  They will get 10 guaranteed points in the Bellefonte/Indian Valley game.  Central Mountain plays a 4-4 Harrisburg squad.  Wilson (DC) takes on Dunbar (DC), a 3-6 team.  Finally, Cedar Cliff plays 7-1 Cumberland Valley.

MAX POINTS earned for Hollidaysburg this week:  200.  140 for beating Williamsport and 60 possible power points (since two of the teams they have already beaten are playing each other).


Johnstown hosts Bishop Guilfoyle and although the Mauraders are just a Class A school, they would pick up 110 points for beating them.  60 for beating a Class A team and ten points each for BG's five previous wins.

Previous victories:  Cambria Heights/Bishop Carroll is a wash and the Trojans get those 10 automatically since they've beaten both squads.  Richland is taking on 7-1 Forest Hills, Somerset is taking on 4-4 Penn Cambria and Bedford is taking on 2-6 Westmont.

MAX POINTS earned for Johnstown this week:  150.  110 for beating BG and 40 possible power points (since two of the teams they have already beaten are playing each other).


Bellefone is taking on Indian Valley and will pick up 120 points should they win.  100 for IV being a fellow AAA team and 20 points for IV's 2 previous wins.

Previous victories:  St. Marys plays Central (7-1), Philipsburg-Osceola plays Chestnut Ridge (4-4), Brookville plays Clarion (5-3) and Penns Valley takes on Tyrone (7-1).

MAX POINTS earned for Bellefonte this week:  160.  120 for beating IV and 40 points if all four teams they previously beat win as well.


Indian Valley, as referenced above, is playing Bellefonte.  IV would get 140 points if they beat Bellefonte, 100 for winning over a Class AAA team and 10 points each for Bellefonte's four wins.

Previous victories:  West Perry is taking on Gettysburg (2-6) while DuBois plays Erie Strong Vincent (8-0).


ANALYSIS:  It's not rocket science that Hollidaysburg will continue their winning ways and will extend their lead in the standings.  Johnstown desparately needs to win their contest with BG should they wish to stay in second place and hold on to that important spot for a home playoff game.  The reason for this is that it's more than likely that Bellefonte will beat Indian Valley.  Regardless of the power points, if JHS loses and Bellefonte wins, the Red Raiders will leap frog into second place.


PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 9

Hollidaysburg, 8-1, 1,220 points.  The Golden Tigers pick up the win on the field, get the guaranteed 10 points from the Bellefonte/Indian Valley game and 10 from Woodson's forfeit win and Wilson should beat Dunbar.

Johnstown, 6-3, 610 points.  The Trojans should be able to take care of business on the field against BG but will only pick up 10 power points in the Cambria Heights/Bishop Carroll game.

Bellefonte, 5-4, 590 points.  The only points picked up by the Red Raiders this week will be from their on-the-field win over Indian Valley. 

Indian Valley, 2-7, 300 points.  No points for IV this week as they'll lose to the afore mentioned Bellefonte Red Raiders and neither of the teams they previously beat will win.  West Perry will fall to Gettysburg and DuBois will fall to the #1 AAA team in the state in Erie Strong Vincent.

 

Numberology #7

10/28/08

There was quite a shakeup in the District 6-AAA scene over this past weekend as Indian Valley pulled the upset and knocked off Bellefonte in what was for sure, the surprise of the week. IV is still in fourth place but they only trail Bellefonte by 30 points now.

The truly impressive thing about IV’s feat is that the Altoona Mirror was reporting that if they lost to Bellefonte, they most likely would have opted to not participate in the playoffs, thus giving Hollidaysburg an open date in the form of a first round bye, while Johnstown and Bellefonte would duke it out for the right to play the Golden Tigers for district gold.

In other action both top seed Hollidaysburg and second seeded Johnstown cruised to easy wins and solidified their respective places.

After week nine, here is what the standings look like:

1. Hollidaysburg, 8-1, 1210 points

2. Johnstown, 6-3, 610 points

3. Bellefonte, 4-5, 470 points

4. Indian Valley, 3-6, 440 points

 

Now, to the final week of the regular season:

Hollidaysburg plays DuBois, 5-4 AAAA team out of District 9. Hollidaysburg would get 170 points for beating them. 120 for beating a AAAA team and 50 points (10 each for DuBois’ 5 wins.

Previous victories: South Western (3-6) plays New Oxford (1-8), Woodson (DC) (4-4) plays Anacostia (2-7), Bellefonte (4-5) plays Bald Eagle Area (3-6), Indian Valley (3-6) plays Lewistown (0-9), Central Mountain (5-4) plays Penns Valley (1-8), Wilson (DC) (4-5) plays Cardozo (3-3), Cedar Cliff (4-5) plays Central Dauphin East (0-9) and Williamsport (2-7) plays Tunkhannock (3-6)

MAX POINTS earned for Hollidaysburg this week: 250. 170 for beating DuBois and 80 if all eight teams they have already beaten win.

 

Johnstown is at Penn Cambria. The Panthers are a 5-4 Class AA team so they would get 130 points for beating them. 80 points for beating a AA club and another 50 points for their five wins.

Previous victories: Ten points guaranteed when Richland and Cambria Heights get together. Bedford (1-8) takes on Chestnut Ridge (5-4), Somerset (1-8) plays Central Cambria (6-3), Bishop Carroll (5-4) plays Moshannon Valley (8-1) and Bishop Guilfoyle (5-4) plays Bellwood-Antis (8-1).

MAX POINTS earned for Johnstown this week: 180. 130 for the PC win, 10 in the Richland/CH game and 40 more if the other four squads they have beaten win.

 

Bellefonte plays Bald Eagle Area, a 3-6 AA club. So they would get 110 points for a victory, 80 for beating a Class AA team and another 30 points for the 3 wins BEA has.

Previous victories: St. Marys (6-3) plays Clearfield (7-2), Brookville (4-5) plays Punxsutawney (4-5), Philipsburg-Osceola (2-7) plays Huntingdon (6-3) and Penns Valley (1-8) plays Central Mountain (5-4).

MAX POINTS earned for Bellefonte this week: 150. 110 for winning against BEA and 40 more if all four teams they have beaten win.

 

Indian Valley is playing Lewistown. The Panthers are Class AA and winless so all IV would pick up would be 80 points.

Previous victories: West Perry (3-6) takes on Shippensburg (4-5), Dubois (5-4) plays Hollidaysburg (8-1) and Bellefonte (4-5) plays Bald Eagle Area (3-6).

MAX POINTS earned for Indian Valley this week: 110. 80 for beating Lewistown and 30 more should the three teams they beat already win their week ten contests.

 

ANALYSIS: There could be some shuffling in places two through four, or they could be no movement at all, it just depends on how some key games shake out. If Johnstown doesn’t win their game with Penn Cambria and gets just their minimum ten points while Bellefonte would win their contest and achieve their maximum points, then there would be a tie at second place with both teams having 620 points. However, should Bellefonte lose and Indian Valley win, could move IV to third, depending on how the power points with Bellefonte would shake out.

However, I don’t forecast any of those scenarios coming to fruition. I see all four 6-AAA teams picking up week ten wins, thus the playoff standings will stand pat.

 

PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 10

Hollidaysburg, 9-1, 1450 points. The near perfect regular season ends with an impressive nine-game winning streak. I could honestly see the Golden Tigers picking up the max power points this week but I’ll go with a safe play and pick seven of eight.

Johnstown, 7-3, 740 points. What a difference a year makes as the Trojans will finish with the identical record they did in 2007, only last year the were on the outside looking in. They will only pick up the guaranteed ten points as I predict the other five teams they have beaten will lose, including both Bishop Carroll and Bishop Guilfoyle in first round 6-A playoff games.

Bellefonte, 5-5, 590 points. The Red Raiders get back on the winning track and escape the regular season with their third place seed intact.

Indian Valley, 4-6, 530 points. Although IV will have made quite the turnaround it still won’t be enough to put them into third place.

Numberology #8

11/4/08

It is time for the final edition of the Numberology column for the 2008 season.  As the regular season ends, the playoff picture is set and there is nothing more to discuss.

Hollidaysburg continued it's roll through their schedule and completed their 9-1 season with a 26-13 win over DuBois.  After a season opening thumping from the hands of State College, they went on a nine-game winning streak.  Although the critics may say they have a watered down schedule, I'll have to use an all too often used sports cliche:  it is what it is.  The Golden Tigers can only be asked to play the teams in front of them and I can't take anything away from these young men and their coaches and their play this year.  They all still practice all week and break down film to prepare to win.  I can't hold it against them that maybe so of their opponents weren't the best.  In a way, what they've done could say it is even more impressive because it's much easier to motivate players for a game against a team that is deemed a "tough opponent".  The "us against the world" mentality can be played and you can really be successful playing with a chip on your shoulder.  The mark of a really good team, in my eyes, is one that not only beats quality opponents but goes out and takes care of business in games that are "supposed to win".  It is for that reason that I congratulate Hollidaysburg on their fantastic season.

For the second season in a row, the Johnstown Trojans finished the regular season on a three-game winning streak in order to finish at 7-3.  The big difference, of course, in this season is that the Trojans are moving on to the postseason while unfortunately last year at this time, the feeling was bittersweet as they would be home for the playoffs.  Although the playoff scene invited all four AAA teams to the postseason (even though only three will play and we'll get to that later), the Trojans were playing at a disadvantage this year when it came to accumulating points.  Previously, they had Somerset as a fellow AAA team in their section of the LHAC.  However, the Golden Eagles dropped to AA this year and therefore the Trojans were left as the lone AAA team in the league and they have a schedule filled with only AA and A teams.  So the amount of points potential gained is always going to be less when compared with Hollidaysburg, Indian Valley and Bellefonte who play schedules laden with AAA and even some AAAA teams. 

To this season and the Trojans they have two big pluses in their favor.  First of all, they get a home playoff game.  They are 2-1 at District 6-AAA games played at Trojan Stadium and in this district, where travel to and from Cambria County is longer in the tooth, having home field advantage is truly an advantage.  The other advantage is that the team is entering the postseason on a high note with the afore mentioned three-game winning streak.  During the Trojans' last postseason season, 2006, the team jumped out to a 6-0 start but then lost three of their final four regular season contests.  They finished the regular season on a two-game losing streak and dropped a home playoff contest to Hollidaysburg.  I would much rather a team have a hot streak entering the playoffs than at the beginning of the season.  This shows a team is coming together at the right time.

To third place, and the final playoff qualifier, Indian Valley.  It was a roller coaster season for first-year head coach Tom Shearer as the Warriors started the season off 2-2 but then lost four straight and were on the verge of eliminating themselves from postseason until they pulled off the improbable and upset Bellefonte in week nine.  That victory, along with a 40-14 drubbing of rival Lewistown in the game for the Old Iron Kettle catapulted the squad into third place and earned them the right play Johnstown in the first round.  They enter the contest with a 4-6 record. 

Last but not least, the Bellefonte Red Raiders who also ended the season on a 4-6 mark, but it was a much more sour note than IV played.  Also under a first-year head coach in Zachary Wynkoop, the team also started out 2-2 but they somewhat imploded, losing four of their last six, including the above referenced loss to Indian Valley but also a devastating Week Ten loss to Bald Eagle Area which knocked them out of contention.

So, here's a final look at the wins-losses-points:

1.  Hollidaysburg, 9-1, 1,440 points
2.  Johnstown, 7-3, 750 points
3.  Indian Valley, 4-6, 520 points
4.  Bellefonte, 4-6, 480 points


Here's what the first week in the postseason will look like in District 6-AAA:

Hollidaysburg enjoys a first round bye

Indian Valley (4-6) at Johnstown (7-3) on Friday, November 7th.


I look for the Trojans to win this contest with IV and to make their way back to Mansion Park in Altoona with a chance to win a District 6-AAA title.

Enter supporting content here