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2009 Numberology

Welcome to the first installment of the Numberology column for the 2009 season.  As I eluded to in the initial MMR of the season, I like to wait until after three weeks are in the book before we start looking ahead to the playoff scene.  

The playoff set-up is the same as a year ago, with four teams in 6-AAA, all may play in the postseason although some may opt out if their record is below .500.  That's pretty much a decision that's made at the school level.    

Even though all four teams qualify, it is still vital for teams to rack up as many points as they can in order to obtain either the #1 or #2 seed and thus, hosting a first round home game.  Another constant this year will be our Trojans' playing catch-up to the other D6 teams.  Even if JHS keeps pace with wins, there are at a disadvantage because their schedule is laden with AA and A teams where as the other three 6-AAA play more AAA teams and even some AAAA teams.    

Before we breakdown each of the four teams and their current place in the standings, let's quickly review the points system.  In AAA, a team gets 120 points for beating a AAAA team, 100 points for beating a AAA team, 80 points for beating a AA team and 60 points for beating an A team.  In addition, a team gets 10 bonus points for every win that opponent achieves that season.  

This is a cumulative thing that needs tracked all season.  In other words, in week four if you beat a team with two wins, you get those 20 points immediately but you also get ten points for each win they get after your head-to-head contest.  This makes it necessary to track the opponents you've beaten all season.  

Now, let's look at things after week three:

1.  Johnstown, 2-1, 160 points
Not only are the Trojans in first place but they are the only 6-AAA squad to have a winning record.  After three weeks they have defeated Cambria Heights and Westmont, two teams that most likely won't give them many bonus points throughout the season.

This week:  the Trojans host the Richland Rams this week.  Richland is a AA school that is sitting with a 3-0 record so a win against them would net the Trojans 110 points (80 for defeating a AA team and 30 bonus points, 10 for each of the Rams' three wins).   

MAX POINTS earned this week for Johnstown would be 130 if they beat Richland, Cambria Heights beats Central Cambria and Westmont beats Somerset.


2.  Indian Valley, 1-2, 100 points
The Warriors defeated West Perry week one, but have not won another game since.  WP is a AAA squad out of District 3 so they got 100 points for that win.   

This week:  IV takes on DuBois and it would be a huge points night for them should they win.  Not only is DuBois a AAAA school but they are 2-1 so the Warriors would net 140 points (120 for beating a AAAA team and 20 bonus points for their two previous wins)  

MAX POINTS earned this week for Indian Valley 150.  140 for their head-to-head with DuBois and 10 should West Perry defeat Susquehanna Township


3.  Bellefonte, 1-2, 80 points
The Red Raiders' lone victory of the season thus far was against Brookville, a 9-AA team that is 0-3.  They did win a game but it was ruled a forfeit after it was discovered Brookville used an ineligible player. Therefore, the Red Raiders lose the bonus points they would have gained from that team's win that was overturned.

This week:  the Red Raiders take on fellow 6-AAA squad Hollidaysburg.  Since the Golden Tigers are currently winless, Bellefonte would just get the 100 points but if they could pull off the win, they'd surely get some bonus points later in the season as Hollidaysburg rebounds.

MAX POINTS earned this week for Bellefonte is 110.  100 for a win over Hollidaysburg and 10 bonus points should Brookville defeat


4.  Hollidaysburg, 0-3, 0 points
This might be a surprise to some to see the defending 6-AAA champs and preseason favorites to repeat to be sitting winless after three weeks.  That is, until you see the schedule they've played:  State College, South Western and West Chester Henderson, all on the road.  That's two AAAA teams, including a State High team that was ranked in the top ten in PA.  

This week:  the Golden Tigers take on Bellefonte this week would pick up 110 points should they win.  100 for the win and 10 bonus points for the Red Raiders' lone victory at this point of the season.

MAX POINTS earned this week for Hollidaysburg are only the 110 they would get from defeating Bellefonte as they are winless at this point.
 

ANALYSIS:  at this point of the season I'm forecasting that Bellefonte and Indian Valley are going to be very ordinary, at best, teams and they will not be contenders to take the district title.  This is a very important weekend for the Trojans and the Golden Tigers.  Because of the lack of big schools on the Trojans' schedule, they must take advantage and beat teams with winning records.  The Golden Tigers also need to win to catapult themselves back into the thick of things.    

 
PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 4:  We'll see how right/wrong I was next week at this time, but here is what I predict the 6-AAA standings will look like next week:

1.  Johnstown, 3-1, 270 points:  the Trojans will take care of business against Richland but won't get any help from either Cambria Heights or Westmont.

2.  Hollidaysburg, 1-3, 110 points:  despite starting off the season 0-3, this one win will catapult the Golden Tigers to second place.  

3.  Indian Valley, 1-3, 100 points:  no change here as the Warriors will lose to DuBois and won't get any help from West Perry.  

4.  Bellefonte, 1-3, 80 points:  same story for the Red Raiders as I see them losing to Hollidaysburg and not getting any help from Brookville.  
 
 
 1.  Johnstown, 2-2, 160 points
Despite a costly loss to Richland, the Trojans are still in first place, but with a slim, 50-point lead. 

This week:  the Trojans host Somerset this week.  The Golden Eagles are a Class AA team with 2-2 record.  In games involving other teams they've beaten, Cambria Heights take on Forest Hills and Westmont takes on Bishop Carroll.   

MAX POINTS earned this week for Johnstown would be 120 if they beat Somerset, Cambria Heights beats Forest Hills and Westmont beats Bishop Carroll.


2.  Hollidaysburg, 1-3, 110 points
The Golden Tigers got their maiden victory of the season against Bellefonte a week ago.    

This week:  Hollidaysburg takes on Indian Valley this week.  IV is a 1-3 AAA team so a victory here would give the Golden Tigers 110 points, 100 for beating a Class AAA team and 10 points for IV's one win at this point of the season.

MAX POINTS earned this week for Hollidaysburg 120.  110 for their head-to-head with Indian Valley and 10 should Bellefonte beat Philipsburg-Osceola. 


3.  Indian Valley, 1-3, 100 points
The Warriors lost their chance to pick up big time points after losing to DuBois last week.

This week:  IV takes on Hollidaysburg.  They would pick up 110 points if they win, 100 for the win over a Class AAA team and the ten bonus points for the Golden Tigers' one win to this point of the season. 

MAX POINTS earned this week for Indian Valley is 120.  110 for a win over Hollidaysburg and 10 bonus points should West Perry defeat Northern.


4.  Bellefonte, 1-3, 90 points
The Red Raiders lost to Hollidaysburg a week ago. 

This week: Bellefonte takes on Philipsburg-Osceola, a Class AA team with a 1-3 record.  They would pick up 90 points if they would win, 80 for beating a Class AA team and ten bonus points for P-O's one win to this point of the season.

MAX POINTS earned this week for Bellefonte this week would be 100, 90 for the win over P-O and 10 points if Brookville can defeat Clarion-Limestone.
 

ANALYSIS:  despite their slow start, Hollidaysburg will continue to make their move to close the gap with Johnstown.  The Golden Tigers and the Trojans are pretty much a two-horse race in the small, four-team field.  

 
PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 5:  We'll see how right/wrong I was next week at this time, but here is what I predict the 6-AAA standings will look like next week:

1.  Johnstown, 3-2, 270 points:  the Trojans will take care of business against Somerset but won't get any help from Cambria Heights.  I see Westmont defeating Bishop Carroll to give JHS ten bonus points.

2.  Hollidaysburg, 2-3, 230 points:  the Golden Tigers will defeat Indian Valley and get bonus points for Bellefonte beating Philipsburg-Osceola.  

3.  Bellefonte, 2-3, 190 points:  The Red Raiders will pick up the win over P-O and will get bonus points for Brookville beating Clarion-Limestone.  

4.  Indian Valley, 1-4, 100 points:  no points for the Warriors as they will lose to Hollidaysburg and will not get any help as the team they beat, West Perry, is 0-4 and they are taking on Northern (4-0).    

 
  1.  Johnstown, 3-2, 270 points
Johnstown defeated Somerset last week and picked up 100 points in the process.  Westmont defeated Bishop Carroll so they the Trojans earned 10 bonus points Saturday afternoon too.

This week:  Johnstown plays Bishop Carroll, a winless Class A team.  They would get a mere 60 points for defeating the Huskies.  In games involving other teams they've beaten, Cambria Heights takes on Penn Cambria, Westmont plays McCort and Somerset plays Richland.

MAX POINTS for JHS to pick up this week would be 90 points, 60 for beating BC and 30 if Cambria Heights, Westmont and Somerset all pick up wins.


2.  Hollidaysburg, 2-3, 220 points
The Golden Tigers continue their rebound from a tough 0-3 start.  Not to look to far ahead, but they might not have another loss this season.  As for last week, they defeated Indian Valley 42-7 and closed the gap in JHS' lead.

This week:  Hollidaysburg plays Central Mountain, a AAAA team with a 3-2 record.  Should they defeat the Wildcats they would be pick up a huge 150 points.  120 for the head-to-head win and 30 in bonus points for CM's three victories.   

MAX POINTS for Hollidaysburg to pick up this week would be 170, 150 for defeating Central Mountain and 20 points should both Bellefonte and Indian Valley both pick up victories.


3.  Indian Valley, 1-4, 100 points
Not a good week for the Warriors as they lost to Hollidaysburg as mentioned above. 

This week:  The Warriors will look to rebound against Huntingdon this week.  The Bearcats are a AA team with a 3-2 record.  Defeating them would net IV 110 points, 80 for beating a Class AA team and another 30 bonus points for Huntingdon's three prior wins.

MAX POINTS for IV this week:  120.  110 for winning head-to-head with Huntingdon and an additional 10 should West Perry defeat Waynesboro.


4.  Bellefonte, 1-4, 100 points
The Red Raiders had a rough one, losing the Luther Trophy battle to rival Philipsburg-Osceola this past week. 

This week: 
Nice opportunity for Bellefonte to pick up some points as they take on DuBois, a 3-2 AAAA squad. They would pick up 150 points should they win, 120 for the head-to-head win and 30 bonus points for DuBois' three previous wins.

MAX POINTS
for Bellefonte this week would be 160, 150 should they beat DuBois and 10 additional bonus points should Brookville beat Allegheny-Clarion Valley.
 

ANALYSIS:  We're at the halfway point of the season and the four-team 6-AAA field is clearly a two-team race between Johnstown and Hollidaysburg.  This is a pivotal week for the Golden Tigers because the only way they cannot take over the points lead is if they would lose to Central Mountain, something I don't see happening.  There may be no looking back for the Golden Tigers as they have a considerably easier road ahead of them in weeks 7-10 than the Trojans do.  Add to that, the fact that JHS plays only A and AA teams from here on out while Hollidaysburg plays nothing but AAAA schools the rest of the season. 

 
PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 6:  We'll see how right/wrong I was next week at this time, but here is what I predict the 6-AAA standings will look like next week:

1.  Hollidaysburg, 3-3, 370 points:  The Golden Tigers will get back to .500 and in the process take over the first place position.  They won't get any bonus points this week, but simply by winning their head-to-head game they will leapfrog the Trojans and take over first place.

2.  Johnstown, 4-2, 330 points:  JHS will win head-to-head with BC but won't get any bonus point help this week. 

3.  Bellefonte, 1-5, 110 points:  the Red Raiders will lose their game with DuBois but will pick up bonus points from Brookville as they should defeat winless Allegheny-Clarion Valley. 

4.  Indian Valley, 1-5, 110 points:  the Warriors will also lose their game with Huntingdon but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say that West Perry will defeat Waynesboro in a battle of winless squads.   

 
 
 1.  Hollidaysburg, 3-3, 370 points
The Golden Tigers outlasted Quad-A Central Mountain and thus picked up big points and overtook the lead in the 6-AAA race.  They picked up no bonus points as both Bellefonte and Indian Valley lost.

This week:  Hollidaysburg travels to the Washington, D.C. area to take on Cardozzo High, a 1-3 Class AA team that would net them 90 points should they win. 

MAX POINTS for Hollidaysburg to pick up this week would be 110, 90 for beating Cardozza, 10 guaranteed from the CM/Bellefonte game and 10 if Indian Valley beats St. Marys. 


2. Johnstown, 4-2, 330 points
As predicted, the Trojans only picked up the mere 60 points due to them from beating a winless Class A team since none of the teams they previously beat were victors.

This week:  Johnstown plays 6-0 Bishop McCort.  They would pick up 120 points should they beat the Crimson Crushers.  60 for the win and 60 bonus points for the prior six McCort wins.  In games involving teams that the Trojans have beaten, Bishop Carroll is at Somerset so that's 10 points either way, Cambria Heights is at Bedford and Westmont hosts Richland.    

MAX POINTS for Johnstown to pick up this week would be 150.  120 for beating McCort, 10 guaranteed no matter how wins between BC and Somerset, 10 if Cambria Heights beats Bedford and 10 if Westmont beats Richland.


3.  Bellefonte, 1-5, 110 points
The Red Raiders lost their head-to-head contest but picked up ten bonus points as Brookville won.  

This week:  Bellefonte takes on Central Mountain this week.  In bonus points, Brookville will take on Montineau, a 9-AA team with a 3-3 record.

MAX POINTS for Bellefonte would be 160, 150 for a head-to-head win over Central Mountain (AAAA team with 3 wins; 120 plus 30 bonus points) and ten bonus points should Brookville win.


4.  Indian Valley, 1-5, 110 points
The Warriors picked up ten bonus points as West Perry won their game a week ago but that's it. 

This week:  IV takes on Saint Marys, a 9-AAA team with a 4-2 record.  A win here would net the Warriors 140 points, 100 for winning over a Class AAA team and 40 bonus points for each of SM's wins.  In other bonus points potential, West Perry plays Red Land, a 2-4 team out of District 3-AAAA.


MAX POINTS
for IV would be 150, 140 should they beat St. Marys and another 10 should West Perry beat Red Land.
 

ANALYSIS:  the two-horse race continues, win or lose for the Trojans, look for the gap with Hollidaysburg and between one and two to widen.

 
PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 7:  We'll see how right/wrong I was next week at this time, but here is what I predict the 6-AAA standings will look like next week:

1.  Hollidaysburg, 3-3, 470 points:  The Golden Tigers will get 100 points in week six, 90 from beating Cardozzo and 10 from the guaranteed bonus points between Central Mountain and Bellefonte.

2.  Johnstown, 4-3, 340 points:  the Trojans will probably only get the guaranteed bonus points from the BC/Somerset game this week. 

3.  Bellefonte, 1-6, 120 points:  the Red Raiders will lose their game with Central Mountain but will pick up bonus points from Brookville as they could very well win a contest of equally matched Montineau.

4.  Indian Valley, 1-6, 110 points:  IV will pick up nothing this week

 
 
 1.  Hollidaysburg, 4-3, 480 points
The Golden Tigers beat Cardozo out of Washington, D.C. last week and picked up ten more points than originally thought because the team actually had two wins previously, not one as was reported.  So they got 100 from the head-to-head win and another 10 from the guaranteed game of Central Mountain and Bellefonte as those were two teams they already beat.

This week:  Hollidaysburg is at Cedar Cliff, a 3-AAAA team out of the Mid Penn Conference.  A win would net the Golden Tigers a whooping 160 points, 120 for beating a Quad-A team and another 40 bonus points for CC's previous 4 wins.  In games involving prior wins, they have another ten points guaranteed as Indian Valley and Central Mountain play one another.  Bellefonte is at Penns Valley and Cardozo plays fellow DC school Roosevelt.

MAX POINTS for Hollidaysburg to pick up this week would be 190, 160 for beating Cedar Cliff, 10 guaranteed from the CM/Indian Valley game, 10 if Bellefonte beats Penns Valley and 10 if Cardozo beats Roosevelt.


2. Johnstown, 4-3, 340 points
The Trojans only picked up ten points last week as they got the guaranteed 10 points in the Somerset/Bishop Carroll contest.

This week:  Johnstown plays 3-4 Bishop Guilfoyle, a Class A team.  They would pick up 90 points should they beat the Marauders.  60 for the win and 30 bonus points for the prior three BG wins.  In games involving teams that the Trojans have beaten, there are ten guaranteed points on the table as Cambria Heights and Bishop Carroll play one another.  Westmont is at Bedford and Somerset is at Penn Cambria. 

MAX POINTS for Johnstown to pick up this week would be 120.  90 for beating BG, 10 guaranteed no matter who wins between BC and Cambria Heights, 10 if Westmont beats Bedford and 10 if Somerset beats Penn Cambria .


3.  Bellefonte, 1-6, 110 points
The Red Raiders lost their head-to-head contest and picked up no bonus points. 

This week:  Bellefonte takes on Penns Valley this week.  PV is a AA team with a 1-6 record so this is a game they actually could win.  They would pick up 90 points, 80 for the head-to-head win and 10 for PV's previous one victory.  In bonus points, Brookville will take on Keystone (5-2).

MAX POINTS for Bellefonte to pick up this week would be 100, 90 if they beat Penns Valley and 10 if Brookville beat Keystone.


4.  Indian Valley, 1-6, 110 points
The Warriors lost their head-to-head contest and picked up no bonus points. 

This week:  IV takes on Central Mountain, a 6-AAAA team with a 4-3 record.  A win here would net the Warriors 160 points, 120 for beating a Quad-A team and 40 bonus points for CM's previous four victories.  In bonus points, West Perry takes on East Pennsboro (2-5). 


MAX POINTS
for IV to pick up this week would be 170, 160 if they win head-to-head with Central Mountain and another 10 if West Perry should take on East Pennsboro.
 

ANALYSIS: With the bottom two teams both 1-6 and essentially out of the running, it really continues to be a two-horse race between the Golden Tigers and the Trojans.  Bellefonte is actually eliminated because they have a school policy that they have to finish above .500 in order to participate in the playoffs.  It is unknown at this time whether Indian Valley has a similar policy.

 
PROJECTIONS FOR AFTER WEEK 8:  We'll see how right/wrong I was next week at this time, but here is what I predict the 6-AAA standings will look like next week:

1.  Hollidaysburg, 4-4, 500 points:  I think Cedar Cliff is a team that could cause Hollidaysburg problems, look for the Golden Tigers to only get the bonus points from Cardozo, Bellefonte and the Indian Valley/Central Mountain game.

2.  Johnstown, 5-3, 440 points:  the Trojans will win against Bishop Guilfoyle and pick up the guaranteed points from the Cambria Heights/Bishop Carroll game. 

3.  Bellefonte, 2-6, 210 points:  although the Red Raiders are eliminated from postseason play, pride is on the line and I see them beating Penns Valley. 

4.  Indian Valley, 1-7, 110 points:  IV will pick up nothing this week

 
 
 
 

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